Indians want to stay in Chabahar / The golden choice to develop a sea-oriented economy.
Despite its strategic location, the potential of the Makran region remains potential. Despite its strategic location, the potential of the Makran region remains potential. When talking about Makran region, the most important point that attracts attention is Chabahar. In the country's political environment, the idea is circulating that the extension of India's long-term investment contract will make Chabahar one of the main hubs of international trade in the region. Despite this, some fundamental considerations in two “technical” and “strategic” areas show that the development path of the Chabahar and Makran region is more complicated than that.
 

“Chabahar” is the golden choice for the development of a sea-oriented economy
 

In Iran, there are 11 ports with different capacities and different backwaters, but the flagship of these ports is Chabahar.
This port is located in the south of Sistan-Baluchistan, along the Makran Sea and is the only seaport in the country that connects Iran to the Indian Ocean via the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea .
Adequate navigation depth for mooring commercial vessels, short sea distance, being outside the critical zone of the Persian Gulf, suitable access to water from open canals and the importance of Souq Al-Jishi and geopolitics of this exceptional port d 'On the one hand, empty capacities and numerous investment opportunities for domestic investors and, on the other hand, the external situation has provoked not only Iran, but also many other countries, including Afghanistan, India, Pakistan, China and even Russia. , to turn to this port for trade and the transit of their goods.
Moreover, Chabahar's location on the route of 2 international corridors has enabled this unique port to become a target market for almost 40% of the world's population and provide the best and most optimal platform for the development of trade and transport. . . A strategic point which, as one of the most sensitive crossroads of the North-South corridor, brings the transit route from Russia, the CIS and other Northern European countries closer to the basin countries from the Indian Ocean, 340 miles closer than Bandar Abbas, and also provides the possibility of connecting them to the Persian Gulf and southern parts of Asia and is considered one of the most important routes of the East-West corridor and the southernmost route in this corridor.
Today, the East Asian market with a population of 2 million, a market of 800 million in Central Asia, the Caucasus and Eastern Europe, and the market South African countries are among the most significant economic opportunities facing the Makran coasts. and Chabahar, as the main center of commercial activities in this region, can, by reducing the cost and time of moving goods, create the best possible means of establishing such interactions between different countries of the world.
The conditions that make this seaport the preferred choice of traders for transit, transfer, export and import, and paying attention to them can change regional and even international equations in a favorable way in favor of Iran.
Chabahar Development Requirements
 
Chabahar is considered a transit point due to its access to open waters.
   In this definition, the development of Chabahar must focus on two main projects: "the completion and operation of the five phases of Shahid Beheshti Port" and "the construction of the Chabahar-Zahedan-Sarkhas railway line and the construction of Highway ". The role in Chabahar is mainly operation and infrastructure development has been entrusted to Iran.
   From a cost and transit point of view, beneficiary countries should seriously participate in the construction and completion of infrastructure projects, but given that India's action towards Iran is fully compliant with the American sanctions framework. The country has therefore not yet included port development on its agenda.
   From a strategic perspective, due to geopolitical changes including the Taliban coming to power in Afghanistan and India's growing entanglement with the UAE and the Zionist regime in establishing a new transit route (Rad-Mad), Chabahar does not have the previous importance and priority of New Delhi from the transit point of view, and the main interests of India. To be present in Chabahar, it will focus on competition with Pakistan and China. However, from an alternative point of view, the development of Chabahar and Makran region requires a more comprehensive approach in this area rather than a partial vision (transit corridor).
In this approach, foreign investments, rather than being directed towards a specific aspect of Chabahar's development, should include a comprehensive package based on the country's southeast development roadmap and the definition of an international role for this one.
In this perspective, from a strategic point of view, the most important question is which major power has the most alignment and mutual interests with the Islamic Republic of Iran in achieving this vision of Chabahar and from the Makran region?
On this basis, it is recommended that diplomatic consultations aimed at attracting foreign investment aim at a comprehensive and long-term plan for the development of this region.
In order to increase bargaining power, it is better to invite foreign investment on the basis of a comprehensive package, simultaneously and parallel to the foreign beneficiary, and finally select the country and actor who are willing to accept more of commitments.
 

The importance of Chabahar port

 

The coastal area of Makran occupies a special position due to its location on the coast of the Arabian Sea.
Utilizing development opportunities and capabilities as well as its geo-economic and strategic location can bring rich benefits to Armaghan, but neglecting resources and capabilities has led to the creation of deprivations among the population and the activity of the region, and now to the development of Chabahar and beyond, the Makran area has become a national concern.
However, the progress of the Chabahar development roadmap is not up to its capabilities.
One of the important capabilities of the Makran region is the possibility of the geopolitical and geoeconomic role of its important ports in the international arena, and an important axis in this matter is to entrust the development of the Chabahar port to actors and stakeholders foreigners.
This question has always been a subject of reflection for the country's policy makers and today, on the eve of the renewal of the contract of Indian companies in Chabahar, this question has once again become a source of conflict of opinions between experts.
In the political environment of the country, although the word corridor is often used, it seems that the concept of corridor is considered the same as the concept of transport route, which causes serious damage to the process of development and policy implementation.
In order to express the difference between an economic belt and a transport route, it is necessary to explain the different levels of action on the corridor or the circuit of the belt. In the dominant view, Chabahar is a transit point or corridor for transporting goods from the sea to closed points due to its access to open waters. Dry land is observed in the Central Asian region.
In this definition, the requirement for Chabahar development will be to focus on 2 main projects “completion and operation of 5 phases of Shahid Beheshti Port” and “construction of railway and highway Chabahar-Zahedan-Sarkhas.” an international transit and transport corridor between the Islamic Republic of Iran, Afghanistan and the Republic of India" was signed in 2015. It is clear that these measures can be classified as the first level of action of the corridor; Of course, this level is also very important for the economy and even for the security of the country, because if Shahid Beheshti port is operated, this port will be the first deep water port in Iran, which will reduce the strategic dependence on Jebel Ali, UAE port for unloading and loading ships, Bozor Barbari will increase Iran's strategic flexibility and resilience in the face of geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.
The fact is that Chabahar port, unlike Bandar Abbas, is located outside the tense Persian Gulf region and somewhat far from the reach of Iran's regional and global non-aligned countries. This means losing the opportunity to develop Chabahar as a driving force. for the economic progress of the southeast of the country and even for the national economy.
At the same time, in addition to the transit capacity of Chabahar, attention was paid to the specific role of this sector in creating a platform for industrial and production activities.
The need for the development of Chabahar in this region is to replace a partial vision with a more global approach.
In this approach, defining the international role of Makran Ports at different levels of action of the corridor, including supply chain and value chains, will be relevant.
Despite this, it appears that no comprehensive plan to harness higher levels of action on the corridors for the development of Chabahar or the Makran region in general has been designed, at least in relation to the environment international.​

How did India enter Chabahar?

  In the political environment, it is sometimes believed that the implementation of the agreement on the creation of the international transit corridor will make the Chabahar port one of the main hubs of international trade in the region.
Despite this, some fundamental considerations in 2 technical and strategic areas show that Chabahar's development path is more complicated than this idea. From a technical point of view, India undertakes to invest $85 million in this contract to provide the necessary equipment to Shahid Beheshti, port operator, grants a credit line of $150 million.
In addition, India was supposed to invest $1.5 billion in the construction of a road and railway complex in the Chabahar region. In practice and so far, Indian investment in Chabahar has been limited to the purchase of 6 cranes worth $25 million, which remained stagnant and unused in previous years.
In addition, the Chabahar-Zahedan railway construction project is also underway, with the allocation of resources from the National Development Fund and the subcontracting of the Khatam-ul-Anbiya camp, and India does not plays no role in it.
One of the most significant technical challenges of the contract with India is that, according to the contract, most of the development of Chabahar is the responsibility of Iran. In other words, this contract is constructed in such a way that the responsibility for developing rail and road transport infrastructure lies with Iran and India's role is primarily to operate these infrastructures.
While considering costs and within the framework of a transit perspective, beneficiary countries should seriously participate in the construction and implementation of infrastructure projects.
For this reason, even the statement that “India is committed to enabling the transit function of Chabahar Port and will meet its needs” can be doubted.
From a strategic point of view, it must be said that India complies as much as possible with the rules of US sanctions in case of interaction with Iran, and the example of this statement was clearly seen in the decision of the India to suspend its oil imports from Iran following India's decision. return of sanctions in 2017; The same statement is also true about the Chabahar affair; Explanation, according to the Treasury Department's response to the August 2020 Global Ports of India letter on the embargo status of the Chabahar project, as well as the explanatory statement from the US Embassy in India on the limits of the L The embargo exemption for this project also shows that New Delhi has many powers and authorizations, including a limit in the Chabahar port.
Granting this license to India then responded to geopolitical logic.
At the time of granting this exemption, America had a presence in Afghanistan and, therefore, needed a logistics and supply line from the sea route to Afghanistan. Given the alliance between Pakistan and China, Pakistani ports were probably not a reliable option. for this problem.
Furthermore, India's granting of clearance to Chabahar can be interpreted as US assistance to India to circumvent its geopolitical rival, Pakistan.
Given that the geopolitical logic discussed above has disappeared with the withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan and the establishment of the Taliban there, it is unlikely that even the previous limited powers and licenses will still be available to the India.

Indians insist on staying
Furthermore, India's new agreement with the US and regional countries, including the UAE and the Zionist regime, to launch the IMEC corridor will mean a reduction in India's focus on Chabahar .
What is interesting is that despite the Al-Aqsa storm operation, America and other member countries of this agreement still insist on its launch.
Although India still needs the capacity of the Chabahar port to access the Central Asian market, in terms of transit, focusing on the corridor between India, West Asia and Europe is a priority highest for this country.
In other words, apart from the restrictions imposed by sanctions, India is looking for geopolitical opportunities in other corridors in which Chabahar plays no role.
India's presence in Chabahar in the geopolitical competition with China remains a strategic issue for New Delhi, but from this geo-economic point of view, Chabahar is not very important for India in international transit; Reducing Chabahar's priority for India does not mean that India is no longer willing to maintain a minimal role in managing the port, but it does mean that India will not be willing to seriously invest in the port. , contrary to his political wishes. , from an economic point of view.
 

last word

In general, since water areas are actually considered one of the elements of Iran's political power and economic growth capacity, our country has always been considered an influential power in the world, and now this role can be strengthened through emerging and updated planning and projects.
On the other hand, the Chabahar port, in addition to playing an important role in supporting the eastern region of the country as well as in the development of transit corridors in Iran, could be the country's main hope for trade stability international shipping in the country. a not so distant future, because it has quick access to the sea. And the great depth of the entrance to this port will allow it to accommodate very large ships, but time will tell if the credits necessary for the development of this port will be provided or the delay in development will cause Chabahar and Iran to lose in competition with other countries in the region.

 

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